Miner State
Bitcoin hashrate indicator that detects miner capitulation and recovery phases via 30-day and 60-day SMA crossovers.
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Crossover history
| Date | Type | BTC | +30d | +90d | +180d | Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May 2026 | Bullish | $77,639 | – | – | – | 10 d |
| 12 May 2026 | Bearish | $81,672 | – | – | – | 3 d |
| 09 May 2026 | Bullish | $80,162 | – | – | – | 44 d |
| 26 Mar 2026 | Bearish | $71,309 | +8.6% | – | – | 28 d |
| 25 Feb 2026 | Bullish | $64,074 | +7.4% | +20.6% | – | 51 d |
| 05 Jan 2026 | Bearish | $91,373 | -17.2% | -26.3% | – | 2 d |
| 03 Jan 2026 | Bullish | $89,926 | -14.4% | -25.6% | – | 33 d |
| 01 Dec 2025 | Bearish | $90,406 | -2.2% | -25.9% | -19.0% | 0 d |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Bullish | $90,841 | -4.1% | -27.5% | -19.1% | 4 d |
| 26 Nov 2025 | Bearish | $87,310 | -0.1% | -26.0% | -11.8% | 128 d |
| 22 Jul 2025 | Bullish | $117,482 | -2.7% | -7.5% | -19.1% | 26 d |
| 26 Jun 2025 | Bearish | $107,239 | +9.6% | +4.5% | -17.5% | 0 d |
| 25 Jun 2025 | Bullish | $105,976 | +11.7% | +6.3% | -16.4% | 2 d |
| 24 Jun 2025 | Bearish | $105,512 | +12.4% | +9.3% | -16.3% | 33 d |
| 22 May 2025 | Bullish | $109,666 | -5.8% | +2.8% | -16.1% | 1 d |
| 21 May 2025 | Bearish | $106,787 | -2.0% | +8.9% | -11.6% | 1 d |
| 20 May 2025 | Bullish | $105,629 | -0.9% | +11.3% | -9.6% | 6 d |
| 14 May 2025 | Bearish | $104,184 | +1.7% | +14.0% | +0.5% | 54 d |
| 22 Mar 2025 | Bullish | $84,010 | +1.3% | +24.6% | +38.6% | 6 d |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Bearish | $84,392 | +0.2% | +25.7% | +36.9% | 38 d |
| 06 Feb 2025 | Bullish | $96,583 | -10.2% | +0.3% | +19.2% | 3 d |
| 03 Feb 2025 | Bearish | $97,568 | -10.5% | -1.7% | +16.1% | 2 d |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Bullish | $102,382 | -7.9% | -5.8% | +15.1% | 1 d |
| 30 Jan 2025 | Bearish | $103,719 | -18.6% | -9.1% | +13.8% | 112 d |
| 10 Oct 2024 | Bullish | $60,597 | +26.3% | +60.0% | +30.7% | 4 d |
| 06 Oct 2024 | Bearish | $62,092 | +9.2% | +58.0% | +33.9% | 76 d |
| 22 Jul 2024 | Bullish | $68,088 | -13.3% | +0.4% | +53.0% | 34 d |
| 18 Jun 2024 | Bearish | $66,460 | -3.5% | -10.9% | +52.5% | 2 d |
| 16 Jun 2024 | Bullish | $66,190 | -2.0% | -8.4% | +51.1% | 34 d |
| 13 May 2024 | Bearish | $61,507 | +9.5% | -1.0% | +24.5% | 278 d |
| 09 Aug 2023 | Bullish | $29,780 | -12.0% | +17.6% | +43.0% | 1 d |
| 07 Aug 2023 | Bearish | $29,044 | -11.2% | +20.7% | +48.6% | – |
What are Hash Ribbons?
Hash Ribbons is a Bitcoin cycle indicator created by Charles Edwards (Capriole Investments). It uses two moving averages of the network hashrate – a 30-day and a 60-day – to detect when miners are surrendering (capitulation) and when they recover. Historically, the end of a miner capitulation has preceded periods of rising Bitcoin price.
How it works
The indicator compares the 30-day moving average of the hashrate to the 60-day average. When hashrate drops (miners shutting off less profitable rigs), the 30-day SMA falls below the 60-day SMA. When miners come back online and hashrate recovers, the 30-day SMA rises above the 60-day SMA again. These crossovers mark meaningful phase shifts in the mining cycle.
Bullish crossover
SMA30 crosses above SMA60. Historically this has often coincided with the end of a miner stress phase and the recovery of hashrate. It does not guarantee a price bottom.
Bearish crossover
SMA30 falls below SMA60. Miners are under stress, hashrate declining. Often coincides with Bitcoin price weakness.
Why it works
Bitcoin miners are the most informed participants in the market – their operations are directly exposed to BTC price. When prices drop too low, weaker miners shut down. Once the inefficient miners are flushed out, the remaining ones are highly profitable, leading to price stabilisation and recovery. Hash Ribbons captures this miner-driven supply shock.
How to interpret
- A bullish crossover (SMA30 crosses above SMA60) after a period of capitulation historically marks the end of a miner stress phase.
- The indicator is most informative alongside other cycle metrics (MVRV Z-Score, Fear & Greed, RSI) – Hash Ribbons alone describes only the mining side.
- Historical data shows Hash Ribbons patterns align with long-term cycle shifts (weeks to months), not short-term price movements.
- In choppy markets, crossovers can occur rapidly without a sustained direction – this reflects unstable hashrate, not a meaningful phase change.
Hash Ribbons is a historical indicator based on on-chain hashrate data. Past patterns do not guarantee future price behaviour.