Market odds for the CLARITY Act, a US bill meant to set the rules for digital assets, have slipped sharply. Cointelegraph said on X on July 17 that Polymarket now puts the bill’s chance of becoming law in 2026 at 35%.
Polymarket is a prediction market, so the figure reflects how traders are currently pricing the political path ahead, not the bill’s legal odds. The reading is still useful. It shows how quickly expectations can move when lawmakers run into resistance.
The CLARITY Act is designed to spell out the structure of the US digital-asset market and which regulators would oversee it. That matters because the US crypto industry has spent years operating under a patchwork of rules and overlapping agency claims.
Recent Senate talks appear to have cooled optimism. Democrats objected to provisions covering conflicts of interest for public officials and consumer protections, according to the report, and that pushed expectations for passage this year lower.
For crypto traders, the key issue is not just whether the bill advances, but whether it can clear enough political friction to stay alive into next year. A lower Polymarket reading does not kill the measure, but it does show that traders are assigning less weight to a clean legislative path in 2026.
The next thing to watch is whether Senate negotiators can revise the disputed sections and bring Democrats back toward the table. Until that happens, market pricing around the CLARITY Act is likely to stay cautious.
Polymarket odds of CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 fall to 35%
Traders now see a 35% chance the US CLARITY Act will pass in 2026 after lawmakers raised concerns about conflict-of-interest and consumer protection rules. This lowers expectations for a clear legal framework for the US digital-asset market, affecting how companies and investors operate under current unclear regulations.