Bitcoin falls toward $60,000 as US-Iran tensions and big sales increase pressure

Bitcoin is threatening the $60,000 support zone as a trio of macro and regulatory headwinds pile on selling pressure. The largest cryptocurrency dropped 3.5% on July 8 and failed to bounce from $62,000, a stark contrast to the Nasdaq which managed to recover some of its losses. That relative weakness has traders watching the $60,000 level closely.

The immediate catalyst is a surge in oil prices tied to escalating US–Iran hostilities. Brent crude jumped from $68 to $74 in a week after the US struck facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear program and President Trump formally scrapped a US–Iran memorandum of understanding. Higher energy costs are reviving inflation fears, which in turn dampen expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool now puts the probability of a September rate hike at 69%, up from 42% just a month ago. For Bitcoin, a hawkish Fed is a headwind because tighter monetary policy tends to drain liquidity from risk assets.

Adding to the pressure, Strategy disclosed it sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin earlier in July. The sale is separate from its previously announced $1.25 billion monetization program, raising concerns that more selling could be coming. Strategy faces $1.76 billion in annual dividend payments and holds over $3.8 billion in convertible bonds with call options exercisable before April 2027. If the company needs to raise cash to meet those obligations, additional Bitcoin sales could further weigh on the market.

Global macro uncertainty is also intensifying. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surged to its highest level in 30 years after the government indicates it may push for changes to the Bank of Japan’s policy target, stoking fears over central-bank independence. Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, so instability in its bond market could ripple across global financial markets. Separately, trade tensions flared again when Trump called on Spain to cut trade ties at a NATO summit.

On the regulatory front, India is tightening its grip on digital assets. Internal documents reveal the Reserve Bank of India strongly supports a policy to completely block banks from any exposure to digital assets. India’s tax authority has also formally warned about tax-evasion risks tied to cryptocurrencies. The move adds to a growing list of Asian jurisdictions hardening their stance on crypto.

The combination of war-driven oil inflation, corporate Bitcoin selling, and regulatory headwinds has created a bearish cocktail for the world’s largest coin. The key level to watch now is $60,000. A decisive break below that could trigger a wave of stop-losses and accelerate losses, especially if geopolitical shocks or further Strategy sales hit the tape in the days ahead.