Prediction-market bettors have slashed the probability that the CLARITY Act – the US crypto market-structure bill – will become law this year. Polymarket now puts the chance at 48%, down from 74% a month ago, according to a Cointelegraph post on June 22. That 26-percentage-point plunge indicates a sharp loss of confidence in the bill clearing Congress and reaching the president's desk by December 31.
The CLARITY Act is the most ambitious legislative effort yet to overhaul how digital assets are regulated in the United States. It would settle the long-running turf war between the SEC and CFTC over which agency oversees crypto, define obligations for exchanges, brokers, and issuers, and create a federal framework for market oversight. Passage has been the single biggest catalyst traders watch for crypto regulatory clarity.
Why the sudden retreat? The odds started falling in late May as floor debate stalled and competing amendments from both parties gummed up committee work. Lawmakers are also distracted by the upcoming midterm elections – every day that passes without a floor vote makes a 2026 enactment less likely. With the clock ticking, the market now assigns a sub-50% probability, meaning bettors see a "no" outcome as the base case.
For crypto traders, the drop matters directly. A signed CLARITY Act would remove many of the legal gray areas that have kept major issuers and exchanges operating under enforcement threats. Without it, the SEC's aggressive enforcement agenda remains the default for another full year. That uncertainty weighs on institutional flows and keeps some projects from listing in the US.
There is still a path. The bill has bipartisan sponsorship and strong industry lobbying behind it. Proponents argue that a lame-duck session after the November elections could create a narrow window for a final push. But with odds now below 50%, the burden of proof has shifted: the onus is on lawmakers to show they can actually move the bill before the new Congress convenes in January.
Watch for two concrete triggers. First, any statement from Senate Banking or House Financial Services chairs about scheduling a floor vote. Second, the emergence of a formal whip count – the first sign leadership is willing to invest political capital. Until then, the 48% number is a reasonable summary of where the legislative process stands: possible, but no longer probable.
Polymarket odds of CLARITY Act passing in 2026 drop to 48% from 74%
The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law by year-end have dropped from 74% to 48%, indicating increased uncertainty around US crypto regulatory clarity. The bill’s delay could maintain the current regulatory ambiguity in the US crypto market.