Bitcoin bears may be running out of ammunition. On-chain data analyzed by investor Anthony Pompliano indicates that the relentless selling pressure of recent weeks is hitting a wall of exhaustion. As spot prices consolidate, key network metrics suggest that the market is transitioning from active distribution to quiet accumulation.
The first key indicator is the Seller Exhaustion Constant, which measures the combination of low price volatility and high realized losses. Historically, when this metric bottoms out, it marks the end of capitulation phases. Right now, 30-day realized volatility has compressed to 34%, while realized losses have dried up, indicating that those willing to sell at a loss have already done so.
Market participants are also watching the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). The metric has hovered just below the 1.0 threshold for consecutive weeks, currently sitting at 0.98. This indicates that the average transaction is occurring at a slight loss, a classic sign of seller capitulation. Sellers are refusing to realize deeper losses, effectively locking up supply.
Meanwhile, exchange reserves continue their multi-month decline. Over 45,000 BTC left major trading platforms over the last fortnight, reducing liquid exchange supply to a multi-year low of 1.78 million BTC. This persistent drain shows that buyers are immediately withdrawing their purchases to cold storage, removing immediate selling pressure from the order books.
Finally, the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs) confirms this supply squeeze. The LTH supply share has ticked back up to 74.2%, recovering from the distribution seen during the previous local peak. These high-conviction investors are absorbing the remaining liquid supply, leaving short-term speculators with fewer coins to trade.
While these on-chain metrics paint a bullish picture of seller exhaustion, the immediate price action remains tied to macroeconomic liquidity. Traders should watch the upcoming US macro data releases and the $62,500 resistance level. A clean break above this level, backed by rising spot volume, would validate the on-chain thesis and confirm that the local bottom is in.
Four On-Chain Metrics Show Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion, Pompliano Says
Four on-chain data points indicate Bitcoin sellers are approaching exhaustion, hinting at a potential price stabilization or rebound. This suggests reduced selling pressure in the Bitcoin market.