Bitcoin faces key inflation data and $10B options expiry that could impact price near $60,000

Bitcoin traders face a two-front test this week as May PCE inflation data lands Thursday and over $10 billion in Bitcoin options expire Friday on Deribit – a quarterly settlement that could amplify any move from the economic report.

The largest cryptocurrency is trading near $62,500 after a rough June that briefly pushed it under $60,000. It has since ranged between $62,000 and $67,000, but the next 48 hours will determine whether that floor holds or breaks.

Thursday’s release covers May consumer spending data and follows a 6.5% annual jump in producer prices – the fastest since November 2022 – driven by energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. The Fed’s last PCE report showed headline inflation at 3.8% in April, nearly double the 2% target. Since then, the central bank raised its year-end PCE forecast to 3.6% and dropped easing language. Markets now price an 85% chance of a rate hike in December.

Friday’s quarterly settlement is the largest of the year. Roughly 80% of the open interest is out of the money after June’s slide, meaning dealers may need to hedge aggressively. A similar setup played out on March 27, when $14.1 billion in Bitcoin options expired into a market hit by rising yields and fading rate-cut hopes. Bitcoin dropped toward $66,200 that morning as dealer hedging accelerated the move.

Institutional demand has already weakened. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed a record $4.4 billion over 13 trading days in late May and early June, and outflows continued in June – another $2.27 billion through June 18, almost all from BlackRock’s IBIT. That removes a steady source of buyers, making dips harder to buy.

A hotter-than-expected PCE print would lift real yields and the dollar, making bonds more attractive than non-yielding Bitcoin. A softer number could reverse the pressure and reopen the risk-on path. Traders will watch Thursday’s 8:30 a.m. EDT release and Friday’s 08:00 UTC settlement for the next direction.